Key takeaways

What is a good solar pull-through rate? Across installers in Enerflo's data, about 41.4% of signed deals reach install within six months. Top performers convert 50% or more, and the best keep almost twice the deals of the average installer.

• 41 of every 100 signed residential solar deals get installed within six months.
• Day 90 is the cliff. 32.7% of signed deals are installed by day 90 and only 41.6% by day 180. After day 90, only about one in eight stalled deals ever installs.
• A change order costs about 10 days. Deals signed once install in 75 days on average. Deals with a change order after the sale take 86 days.
• Re-signs run as high as 28%. Some installers re-sign 20% or more of their contracts after the sale.
• In-house sales raises the floor, not the ceiling. In-house sales teams post a 48.5% median pull-through versus 41.6% for EPC and hybrid models.
• Design errors start upstream. Scanifly data shows 25%+ of projects face revisions or redesigns on install day, and about 70% of AI-driven design errors trace back to outdated or manipulated remote data.
• Most fixes happen before the signature: accurate site data, a title check upfront, the right contracts signed the first time, and reps held to complete project submissions.

Solar won the market. Fulfillment is where it is losing trust.

By most measures, residential solar has never been stronger. Solar now makes up more than 6% of the U.S. energy mix, up from 1 to 2% a decade ago. It has been the leading source of new grid capacity for five straight years, and hardware costs have fallen dramatically.

So why does the industry still carry a reputation problem? Because the system rewards the signature, not the install.

Sales incentives pay at the close. Reps are paid when the contract is signed and are often rewarded for selling a bigger system. Nobody downstream is paid to correct what gets promised. Commission-driven orgs built for volume can "blitz and disappear," leaving the installer to clean up.

Financing standards looked at the wrong thing. For about a decade, loans were underwritten on credit and projected production, with little scrutiny of how the system would actually perform.

Remote designs clear underwriting unchecked. Most deals close on satellite imagery and LiDAR that is often 5 to 10 years old, with no on-site validation before install. Shading and production inputs can be adjusted to pass underwriting, and finance partners rarely verify them against site data.

Regulators are stepping in. States are adding cooling-off periods, and Texas now requires in-person signing for solar contracts.

Layer that on top of today's market: tight capital and liquidity, FEOC and domestic content rules keeping capital providers cautious, rates driven up by infrastructure and AI demand, a notable number of bankruptcies, and smaller installers still working out TPO. Every deal that falls out after the signature now costs more than it did a year ago.

What the pull-through data shows

Enerflo's data follows signed residential solar deals from contract to install across its installer network. Here is what it reveals about the stretch between NTP and PTO where deals quietly die.

Out of every 100 signed deals, about 41 get installed

Only 41 of every 100 signed deals are installed within six months. The remaining 59 were signed and paid for in sales commissions and design time, then never installed.

This is the number most of the industry never looks at. Marketing budgets, sales comp plans, and lead spend all go to the top of the funnel. But when most signed deals never reach the roof, adding more volume just adds more work to the pipeline without adding installs.

Most installs that will happen, happen by day 90

32.7% of signed deals are installed by day 90. By day 180, that number only climbs to 41.6%. The curve flattens fast.

The practical meaning: a deal that has not moved by day 90 is very unlikely to move at all. After day 90, only about one in eight stalled deals ever installs. Speed is not a nice-to-have in solar fulfillment. It is the difference between revenue and a chargeback.

Top installers keep almost twice the deals

Across installers with 200 or more settled deals, the average pull-through rate is 41.4%. But the spread is wide. The best installers convert well above 50% of signed contracts, and the strongest keep almost twice the deals of the average. At the other end, some installers install fewer than one in five of the deals they sign.

Same market, same products, same financing options. The difference is how each installer runs the handoff from sales to fulfillment.

A change order costs about 10 days

Deals signed once take an average of 75 days from signing to install. Deals that need a change order after the sale take 86 days. That is 10.5 days slower, and every one of those days pushes a deal closer to the day 90 cliff.

Many change orders trace back to bad inputs at the point of sale: a design built on outdated imagery, a name that does not match the title, a missing document.

Re-sign rates run up to 28%

The share of deals that need a contract re-signed after the sale lands very unevenly across installers. Most sit in a manageable range, but some installers re-sign 20% or more of their deals, and the highest reach 28%. Each re-sign is another chance for the homeowner to walk, and another week or more added to the timeline.

In-house sales raises the floor, not the ceiling

How does sales model affect pull-through? Installers who sell every deal in-house post a median pull-through of 48.5%, compared to 41.6% for both EPC models (outside sales orgs only) and hybrid models (installer plus outside orgs). In-house sales also raises the floor: the lowest in-house performer still converts 27%, versus 21% for EPC and 10% for hybrid.

But in-house sales does not raise the ceiling. The top performers in every model reach similar heights. Sales model helps, but process is what separates the best installers from the rest.

Scanifly sees the same problem from the design side

Enerflo's data shows the contract side of the story: a re-signed contract adds about 10 days to install. Scanifly's data shows the site side: what happens when the design does not match the roof.

• 25%+ of projects face revisions or redesigns on install day.
• About 70% of AI-driven design errors trace back to shading analysis built on outdated or manipulated remote data.

Same problem, two sides. When a design is built from 5 to 10 year old LiDAR, the crew finds the truth on install day: a new tree, a vent that was not in the imagery, a roof plane that is not where the model said. The job changes, the contract changes, the homeowner re-signs, and the timeline slides toward day 90.

How to fix solar fulfillment: what installers can do today

The good news from the webinar is that most of these losses are preventable, and most of the fixes happen before the contract is signed. Pat and Jason laid out four actions any contractor can take.

1. Cut sales partners by pull-through

Rank sales orgs by fulfillment, not signed volume. For example, a partner that signs 300 deals and installs 90 is costing you more than one that signs 150 and installs 100. The bottom 10% of sales partners cost ops time without delivering installs.

2. Design it right the first time

Design on accurate site data so fewer jobs change on install day and fewer contracts get re-signed. Every design that matches the roof is a change order that never happens.

3. Bring the drone to the point of sale

Sell from a 3D model of the actual home, not a satellite image. When the rep and the homeowner are looking at the real roof, expectations are set before the signature, not corrected after it.

4. Clean up the handoff

The handoff from sales to fulfillment is where good deals pick up bad data. Three practices make the biggest difference:

• Run the title check upfront. Name mismatches are the worst reason to issue a change order or redesign. Trusts and ownership issues can be detected and handled at the point of sale. Fix it once there, and every contract and finance document downstream is right.
• Get the right contracts signed the first time. Contract issues add about 10 days to install. Set the rules once and let Enerflo build the correct packet for each deal, with the right documents, names, and data on the first pass.
• Remind reps what is required, and enforce it. A solar sale has a lot of moving parts, and reps forget things. Requiring a complete project submission (utility bill, HOA status, an approved proposal, signed financing docs) may feel like more work upfront, but reps want a fast install as much as you do. It also shrinks the workload for your intake team, and Enerflo's AI utility bill validator catches problems before fulfillment starts.

And once the deal is moving, keep homeowners in the loop. A customer who can see where their project stands is far less likely to cancel during the quiet weeks between NTP and install.

What the best installers do differently

Strip away the charts and the pattern is simple. The installers who keep the most deals do three things well.

1. They get the contract right the first time. A re-signed contract adds about 10 days to install at every installer with enough data to compare.
2. They do not let deals go stale. After day 90, only about one in eight stalled deals ever installs. Faster installers keep more of what they sell.
3. They demand more of their sales reps upfront. Ensuring reps complete every required item while they are in the home, when it is easiest, prevents the back-and-forth that kills momentum.

None of this requires selling more. It requires installing more of what you already sold. In a market where capital is tight and every lead costs more, improving pull-through from 41% to 50% is the cheapest growth an installer can buy.

That is the idea behind the Operating System for Residential Solar: one connected flow from lead to PTO, so the data captured at the point of sale is the same data that drives design, contracts, financing, and the Install Tracker. Pair it with accurate site data from Scanifly, and the deal that gets signed is the deal that gets installed.

Watch the full webinar on demand: http://lp.enerflo.com/scanifly

See how Enerflo helps installers get more signed deals installed:Book a demo

Learn more about Scanifly's reality capture software:scanifly.com