Will Solar Survive the Big Beautiful Bill? Insights and Strategies from the Experts

The U.S. residential solar industry is standing at a crossroads. Proposed changes in federal tax incentives—especially the potential removal of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for leases and PPAs—could reshape the market almost overnight.

In a recent webinar hosted by Enerflo Co-founder Pat Bennett and Ohm Analytics Founder Chris Collins, over 500 solar professionals came together to unpack what these changes could mean and how to get ready.

Here are a few takeaways:

The Reality Check

• If the ITC disappears for leases and PPAs, installations could decline by 53–60% in some regions.
  
• States relying heavily on third-party ownership—like Florida and Texas—face the greatest risk.

Reasons for Optimism

• Leased battery storage will likely retain incentives, creating new opportunities.
• Rising electricity rates driven by AI, data centers, and extreme weather will make solar more attractive long-term.
• Many customers don’t apply their ITC credits to loans, weakening the incentive’s practical impact.
  

Adaptation is Possible

• Solar has evolved before—from cash sales to leases to loan-based models.
• Regional credit unions and banks are already preparing non-ITC loan products.
• Customer trust and transparent savings modeling will be more important than ever.

Key Strategies to Consider Now

• Diversify your financing partners beyond a single loan or lease provider.
• Explore battery-only offerings and bundled energy efficiency products.
• Focus on inside sales teams and referral-driven acquisition to reduce costs.
  

In short: Solar isn’t dying. It’s evolving.

If your business depends on TPO, now is the time to adapt, train, and prepare. The companies who act early will be the ones who emerge stronger when the dust settles.